PC Market Rebound Will Drive Double-Digit Growth Through 2014, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, MA. – March 15, 2010 – After a severely constrained first half, steeply discounted PCs along with improving economic conditions steered the global PC market back into the black in the latter half of 2009. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, the yearly growth rate for the worldwide PC market in 2009 was 2.9%.

Portable PCs remained the key market driver, with shipments increasing 18.4% in 2009 compared to 2008. Consumer purchases of portable PCs were the sole driver of the market, growing at 38.5%. Commercial shipments were severely strained but showed signs of life near the end of the year as fourth quarter growth came in just under 1%, providing a glimpse of an anticipated commercial refresh in 2010. As a harbinger that the pace of ASP declines will moderate, mininotebook growth slowed in the fourth quarter as the volume of other notebook categories grew 22% year over year.

With the recovery picking up, the PC market is expected to resume expansion in 2010 with global growth of 12.6%. Emerging regions, which have been instrumental in reviving the market, are expected to maintain course; growing 18.5% in 2010 and overtake mature markets in volume during 2010 and beyond. Mature markets should see 2010 come in at 7.2%, with double digit volume growth resuming in 2011. Portable PCs will remain the driver of growth across consumer and commercial segments, reaching a 70% share of PCs by 2012. In the meantime, desktop PCs will see a decline across all regions except Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), resulting in slightly positive yearly growth throughout the forecast period.

Set against the backdrop of a positive shipment outlook, market revenue will recover at a slower pace. 2010 should see revenue growth; albeit at 5% and nearly 7% in 2011. However, compared against the record revenues seen in 2008, PC market revenue is not expected to surpass the 2008 number until 2012; and will need a shipment total 140 million units higher than the 2008 market.

"PC volume continued to grow in 2009 – fairing much better than in 2001, when a smaller recession produced a decline in PC volume. The positive 2009 results reflect lower prices and the fact that PCs are increasingly a must-have product," said Jay Chou, research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "With lean margins and further market consolidation remaining a harsh reality for the foreseeable future, vendors are increasingly looking to a mix of volume and specialized products to grow revenue, including new combinations of portability, performance, and the intriguing possibilities of touch computing. Overcoming challenges, such as synchronizing data across multiple devices, will be an important step in enabling adoption of more devices and expanding market growth."

“IDC is keenly focused on the forthcoming tablet device market,” said Bob O’Donnell, IDC vice president, Clients and Displays.”However, we don’t expect these products – which do not meet the current IDC definition of a PC – will stunt the strong growth in PCs we’re expecting to see this year.”

 

PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2009-2014(Shipments

in millions)

Region   Form Factor   2009   2010*   2011*   2012*   2013*   2014*

USA   Desktop PC   27.5   25.9   25.4   25.1   24.8   24.7

USA Portable PC 42.5 50.0 60.9 71.7 82.0 92.4

USA Total PC 70.0 75.9 86.3 96.8 106.9 117.1

 

International Desktop PC 99.6 102.3 104.8 106.7 107.8 108.5

International Portable PC 126.4 154.9 188.5 224.5 262.8 305.7

International Total PC 226.0 257.3 293.3 331.2 370.5 414.2

Worldwide Desktop PC 127.1 128.3 130.3 131.8 132.6 133.2

Worldwide Portable PC 168.8 204.9 249.4 296.2 344.8 398.1

Worldwide Total PC 296.0 333.2 379.6 428.0 477.4 531.3

* Forecast data

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, March 2010

 

PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2009-2014

Region   Form Factor   2009   2010*   2011*   2012*   2013*   2014*

USA   Desktop PC   -12.3%   -5.8%   -1.9.%   -1.3%   -1.2%   -0.5%

USA Portable PC 24.1% 17.7% 21.8% 17.7% 14.5% 12.6%

USA Total PC 6.7% 8.5% 13.7% 12.1% 10.4% 9.5%

 

International Desktop PC -12.3% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7%

International Portable PC 16.5% 22.6% 21.6% 19.2% 17.0% 16.4%

International Total PC 1.8% 13.8% 14.0% 12.9% 11.9% 11.8%

Worldwide Desktop PC -12.3% 0.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5%

Worldwide Portable PC 18.4% 21.4% 21.7% 18.8% 16.4% 15.5%

Worldwide Total PC 2.9% 12.6% 13.9% 12.7% 11.5% 11.3%

* Forecast data

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, March 2010

Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Notebook, Ultra Portable, and Mini Notebook PC, and do not include handhelds.

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC

IDC is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 46 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com [http://www.idc.com].

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