PC Market Returns to Growth With Double-Digit Gains Expected Through 2013, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. – December 17, 2009 – Buoyed by strong back-to-school demand, worldwide PC shipments returned to positive growth in the third quarter of 2009 (3Q09) with an increase of 2.3% after three consecutive quarters of decline. Consumer portables remained the key driver, with shipments increasing 33.5% from a year ago, while consumer desktop demand remained weak as the market continued its transition to mobility. The decline of commercial PCs also started to slow in 3Q09, providing a hint that IT spending will gradually pick up in upcoming quarters. Mini Notebooks (a.k.a. Netbooks) continued to see strong growth with a 37% gain over the previous quarter, while the Mini Notebook share of consumer portables increased to 28% from 14% a year ago. According to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, the strong showing in 3Q09 and growth in key segments will lead to net growth of 1.3% for 2009 and set the stage for further gains throughout the forecast period.

Looking forward, the market is expected to quicken the pace of growth in 2010. Emerging regions, which now account for half of the total market, will lead the way with double-digit growth for 2010 while mature markets are also expected to make steady gains. Desktop shipments will be roughly flat in 2010, while portable PC growth of 18.1% will continue to drive overall volume gains. The commercial sector is expected to rebound in the second half of 2010. Mini Notebooks will continue to grow, but at a slower rate, as the introduction of new ultra-thin portables will generate new growth points and limit the share captured by Mini Notebooks.

“Vendors are competing aggressively to capture back-to-school and holiday demand," said Jay Chou, research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Beyond stabilizing their business, PC vendors are trying to position themselves for gains as the market recovers. We’re seeing aggressive promotions and expect innovations leveraging new technologies, including ultra-thin designs, touchscreens, and LED panels. The technology changes and efforts to stand out in an increasingly commoditized market will lead to further product and customer segmentation and add to the advantage of market leaders in covering the breadth of products, technologies, and market segments.”

“Once again, the PC market shows its resiliency,” said Loren Loverde, program director IDC Worldwide Trackers. “The speed of market stabilization and growth in key segments reflect the essential role of personal computing today. Technology evolution and falling prices remain a compelling combination. As commercial spending recovers in 2010, we expect to see robust growth over the next several years.”

"An aging installed base of PCs to replace, along with government aid and declining average selling prices are key ingredients in a recipe for resurgence of PC shipments into the commercial market segment," said Richard Shim, research manager for PCs at IDC. "The combination of a recovering commercial market and a healthy consumer market will lead to double-digit shipment growth through 2013."

PC Shipments By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013

(Shipments in millions)

Region Form Factor 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013*

USA Desktop PC 31.4 26.9 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.8

USA Portable PC 34.2 40.0 45.0 51.9 58.3 61.9

USA Total PC 65.6 66.9 70.9 77.3 83.4 86.8

International Desktop PC 113.5 99.3 100.3 102.8 105.6 107.0

International Portable PC 108.5 125.2 150.2 180.0 213.9 250.6

International Total PC 222.0 224.5 250.5 282.8 319.5 357.6

Worldwide Desktop PC 144.9 126.2 126.2 128.2 130.7 131.9

Worldwide Portable PC 142.7 165.2 195.2 231.9 272.2 312.5

Worldwide Total PC 287.6 291.4 321.4 360.1 402.9 444.4

* Forecast data

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, December 2009

PC Shipment Growth By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013

Region Form Factor 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013*

USA Desktop PC -8.3% -14.2% -3.6% -1.9% -1.2% -1.2%

USA Portable PC 14.0% 16.8% 12.5% 15.3% 12.3% 6.3%

USA Total PC 2.1% 2.0% 6.0% 9.0% 7.9% 4.1%

International Desktop PC -4.8% -12.6% 1.0% 2.5% 2.7% 1.4%

International Portable PC 39.2% 15.5% 19.9% 19.9% 18.8% 17.1%

International Total PC 12.6% 1.1% 11.6% 12.9% 13.0% 11.9%

Worldwide Desktop PC -5.6% -12.9% 0.1% 1.6% 2.0% 0.9%

Worldwide Portable PC 32.2% 15.8% 18.1% 18.8% 17.4% 14.8%

Worldwide Total PC 10.0% 1.3% 10.3% 12.0% 11.9% 10.3%

* Forecast data

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, December 2009

Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Notebook, Ultra Portable, and Mini Notebook PC, and do not include handhelds.

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or

About IDC

IDC is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 45 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting[].



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